Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-112) after it opened @ 55.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 15.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (78th percentile).
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Christian McCaffrey has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, playing on 74.5% of snaps vs just 60.0% last season.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 100 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards