Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (+104) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

Aaron Jones has received 48.4% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Aaron Jones has grinded out 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness (5.34 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (81st percentile among RBs).
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 32.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have run for the least yards in football (just 76 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards