Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (68.0) to TEs this year.
Cons
- Zach Ertz has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a mere 5.95 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
- Zach Ertz has been among the worst tight ends in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has given their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
