Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 40.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 66.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Higbee has been a more important option in his team’s passing offense this season (22.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.5%).
- Tyler Higbee has accumulated a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 68.8%.
- Tyler Higbee’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 6.09 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
