Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 33.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 32.0) to tight ends this year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (64.6%) to TEs this year (64.6%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 6.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
- The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
