Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).

Pros

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued a colossal 52.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson’s 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 59.7%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 45.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards