MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- T.J. Hockenson has accrued a colossal 52.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 59.7%.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 45.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
