Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to total 10.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (112.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).

Cons

The Bills are a massive 10.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs has compiled far fewer air yards this season (110.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers defense has surrendered the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 131.0) versus WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Receiving Yards