MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
Romeo DoubsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Romeo Doubs’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (+106) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.3%) vs. WRs this year (63.3%).
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
