Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Eagles vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-113) after it opened @ 35.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Steelers are a massive 11.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 71.4%.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) versus TEs this year (63.4%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. TEs this year, yielding 6.36 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
