Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Giants
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant’s skills in picking up extra yardage have been refined this year, accumulating 6.25 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 4.10 rate last year.
- The New York Giants pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus TEs this year, giving up 8.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the league.
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- Noah Fant has been a less important option in his offense’s passing game this year (12.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
