Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to total 4.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki’s possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 75.4%.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) to tight ends this year.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (60.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
Mike Gesicki has notched far fewer air yards this season (36.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (43.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards