Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (-114) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 72.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Mike Evans has accrued quite a few more receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (61.0).

Cons

Mike Evans has put up quite a few less air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (99.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards