Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Buccaneers vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 9.7 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has been a more important option in his offense’s passing attack this season (33.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (26.6%).
- Mark Andrews has posted a monstrous 95.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 7th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.
- Mark Andrews has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
- Mark Andrews’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.1% to 67.8%.
- Mark Andrews’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, notching a measly 8.15 yards-per-target vs a 9.34 rate last year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 45.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
