Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-111) after it opened @ 28.5 (-120).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts’s 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 49.9.
Kyle Pitts’s talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, accumulating 6.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.59 mark last season.

Cons

The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts has compiled far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards