Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Falcons vs. Panthers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-111) after it opened @ 28.5 (-120).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts’s 58.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 49.9.
- Kyle Pitts’s talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, accumulating 6.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.59 mark last season.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
- Kyle Pitts has compiled far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
