Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-130) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this season (70.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (56.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 7.61 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 figure last season.
- Juwan Johnson has been among the bottom tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 22nd percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
