Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 88.5 (-113) after it opened @ 96.5 (-114).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Jefferson has notched significantly more receiving yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.18 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
Justin Jefferson has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
113
Receiving Yards