Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Jakobi Meyers has put up far more air yards this year (76.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
- Jakobi Meyers’s 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 87th percentile for wideouts.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Jakobi Meyers has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (71.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- The New York Jets defense has conceded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
