NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-115/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-114) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Hunter Henry has been among the most efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 7.89 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 2.48 mark last year.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has totaled far fewer air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
