Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (+100/-137).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-137) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 7.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst wideouts in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.5%) to wide receivers this year (61.5%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards