Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darnell Mooney from EV Insight

Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to garner 8.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Darnell Mooney’s 73.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 62.2.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
Darnell Mooney has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Darnell Mooney has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (39.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards