Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Curtis SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Commanders
Right now, Curtis Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-142) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to garner 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Curtis Samuel has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a mere 6.65 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 117.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 7.68 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
