Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (95.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Christian Kirk has totaled far fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 63.1%.
- The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 118.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 6.07 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
