Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (95.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Christian Kirk has totaled far fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 63.1%.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 118.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 6.07 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards