Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accumulate 8.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (184.0) to wideouts this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Chris Olave has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 58.4% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs
Chris Olave has been among the weakest wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards