Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to accumulate 8.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (184.0) to wideouts this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Chris Olave has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 58.4% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs
- Chris Olave has been among the weakest wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
