WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cowboys vs. Bears
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.06 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accrue 9.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his team’s passing offense this season (31.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.3%).
- CeeDee Lamb has posted quite a few more air yards this season (96.0 per game) than he did last season (82.0 per game).
Cons
- The Cowboys are an enormous 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
- CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 58.3%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a mere 7.64 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
