Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to total 9.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 56.7 plays per game.
Brandin Cooks has been a much smaller piece of his team’s passing game this year (23.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.2%).
Brandin Cooks has notched quite a few less air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards