Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Lions vs. Dolphins
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.70 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 56.0 yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (64.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (83.0%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few less air yards this season (41.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
