Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 178.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 178.5 (-120) after it opened @ 178.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Zach Wilson’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 56.0% to 60.0%.
- The New York Jets O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Cons
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Zach Wilson has been among the weakest quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging 166.0 yards per game while ranking in the 17th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (66.1%).
- The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots cornerbacks profile as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
