Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (+110/-145).
The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (+110) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- Trevor Lawrence has thrown for a lot more yards per game (247.0) this year than he did last year (213.0).
Cons
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 194.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 5.98 yards-per-target: the least in football.
- The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
