Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 278.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 278.5 (-110) after it opened @ 280.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Tom Brady has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 285.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 10th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
331
Passing Yards