Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Taylor Heinicke from EV Insight

Taylor HeinickePassing Yards

Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the league versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year (73.3%).

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-least yards in football (just 211.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
239
Passing Yards