Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam EhlingerPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Colts vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Ehlinger’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 217.5 (-139) after it opened @ 222.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.2%).
- The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
