Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Ehlinger from EV Insight

Sam EhlingerPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Ehlinger’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 217.5 (-139) after it opened @ 222.5 (-114).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Washington Commanders defense this year (67.2%).
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards