Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 225.5 (-120) after it opened @ 235.5 (+125).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the NFL.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties grade out as the 7th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 56.3%.
Russell Wilson has been among the least efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 6.56 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 23rd percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards