MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 198.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 198.5 (-110) after it opened @ 192.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL against the New York Jets defense this year (65.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
