Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Seahawks vs. Giants
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-139) after it opened @ 234.5 (-115).
Pros
- Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 72.0%.
- Geno Smith has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.71 yards-per-target while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
- The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Giants pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 32.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
