Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Saints vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 38.1 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.
- Derek Carr’s throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 62.7%.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 216.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards
290
Passing Yards
