Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 243.5 (-139) after it opened @ 251.5 (-115).

Pros

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to use backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Andy Dalton has passed for many more yards per game (227.0) this year than he did last year (183.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-most yards in football (287.0 per game) versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 33.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards