Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Bills vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 39.5 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with an impressive 67.9% Completion%, grading out in the 86th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 9th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Aaron Rodgers’s passing effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a mere 6.84 yards-per-target vs a 8.15 rate last year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.82 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
