Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Lions (1-5) host the Dolphins (4-3) on Sunday, as Dan Campbell looks to snap Detroit’s four-game losing streak. Running back D’Andre Swift is expected to be back for the Lions, as is wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. The market is anticipating a high-scoring affair, as this total (51.5) is the highest on the board.
Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert’s run as Miami’s clear lead running back continued Sunday night, as he rushed for 79 yards on 16 carries, while adding four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Mostert played 71% of the snaps and handled 20-of-27 running back touches in Miami.
Since Week 4, Mostert ranks seventh in the league in rushing attempts (63), ninth in rushing yards (310), 12th in avoided tackles (11) and 15th in fantasy points (56.0). His strong play should continue against a Lions run defense that is coughing up the second-most rushing yards per game (162.8).
Pick: Raheem Mostert Over 66.5 Yards (-112)
The Lions defense enters Sunday’s matchup with the 31st-worst rush EPA and have surrendered the third-highest rush success rate in the league (46.6%). Mostert has successfully gone over this number in three out of the last four games. The 30-year-old back is gaining 0.69 rush yards over expected, more than Chase Edmonds this season. He should have plenty of success versus the Lions’ 29th-ranked rush DVOA.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill was targeted 13 times, giving him double-digit targets in four of the five games Tua Tagovailoa has played in this season. His 32.3% target share is the third-highest mark in the league through seven weeks. He has WR1 overall upside most weeks, but especially this week. Hill faces a Lions defense that, as we already discussed, plays a ton of man coverage. Playing man coverage against Hill is extremely risky, as he ranks fourth among all qualified wideouts in yards per route run against man coverage this year (4.07).
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-145)
Tyreek Hill leads the league in receptions, yards and targets this season. Hill is averaging eight receptions a game this season and now faces off against the Lions who have the second-worst pass DVOA in football. HIll’s hit this prop in six of his seven games, with the only loss coming Week 3 against the Bills. Detroit has struggled to stop the opposition’s No. 1 wideout this season, as they rank 30th in DVOA against top wideouts.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Yes, that’s two props on one player. I don’t love having a bunch of exposure on one player, but this matchup is too good to pass up for Hill. The former Chief is averaging over 110 yards a game this season. Hill should see double-digit targets once again Sunday with Tua under center.
