Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Bengals vs. Falcons
Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.
- The Atlanta Falcons have utilized some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.39 seconds per play.
- The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
