Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Jaguars vs. Giants
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.29 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Travis Etienne’s ground efficiency (5.32 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (84th percentile among RBs).
- The New York Giants defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.40 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Rushing Yards
50
Rushing Yards
