Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Giants to run on 49.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The 9th-most plays in the league have been called by the New York Giants this year (a whopping 61.8 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The model projects Saquon Barkley to notch 20.5 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a stellar rate of 77.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Saquon Barkley stands as one of the leading RBs in football since the start of last season.

Cons

The Giants may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor.
The Giants are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards