Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-117/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-113) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 42.9% run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 15.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has earned 59.5% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has run for substantially more yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).

Cons

The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards