Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-117/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-113) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 42.9% run rate.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 15.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has earned 59.5% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has run for substantially more yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).
Cons
- The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
