Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-137) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Kenyan Drake has run for quite a few more yards per game (45.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
- Kenyan Drake’s ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, compiling 5.74 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.99 mark last season.
- The Cleveland Browns defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding 5.51 yards-per-carry.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the worst group of DTs in football this year with their run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (15.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Rushing Yards
18
Rushing Yards
