Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 73.5 (+105) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.83 yards-per-carry.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 53.3 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
