Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accrue 19.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team’s running game this season (85.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.7%).
Josh Jacobs has run for substantially more yards per game (105.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most yards in football (157 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards