Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 17.7 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller part of his offense’s running game this week (72.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.9% in games he has played).
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for significantly fewer yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (116.0).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards