Week 7 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 18.7 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has averaged 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (79th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has produced the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 4.85 yards-per-carry.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 33.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (71.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.9% in games he has played).
Joe Mixon’s ground efficiency (3.38 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (7th percentile among running backs).
Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra running yardage this year, totaling 2.06 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards