Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
49ers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-137) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-most run-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Jeffery Wilson has run for a lot more yards per game (69.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
- Jeffery Wilson’s rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 5.14 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.77 rate last season.
Cons
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (39.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.3% in games he has played).
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 92 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
