NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-129) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to earn 11.4 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his team’s running game this week (45.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.0% in games he has played).
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup quarterback PJ Walker in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Panthers are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- D’Onta Foreman has rushed for many fewer yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.23 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
